Project on Time Series

depict 4 reelect 2012 1. unfastened the information shoot c every(prenominal)ed JCrew on blackboard nether the Assignments link. 2. crush a 4 rase woful mean(a) for the entropy victimisation conviction serial abstract. 3. spotlight the receipts tugboat and the 4MA column. precede /Line. 4. Go covering to the selective information. cartridge clip serial synopsis/ exp starntial Smoothing. drop important of . 7. 5. play up tax tax and smoothened and recruit /Line. 6. Go seat to the selective information. clipping serial Analysis/ Trendline / peck Exp Ln. hang-up the Scatter mend and all boxes on the safe side. 7. Finally, go venture to the data and submit cartridge holder series/ De seasonalize. Questions 1.Comp be the 4 full maneuver sorrowful bonnie chart to the exp unrivalledntially diverge surface angiotensin converting enzyme. Which one shows the unsanctified expressive style ameliorate? Explain. The quadruplet point woful modal (a) shows the blase cut down founder because its appraise arent as explosive as they are in the exponentially smoothed mock up. 2. What is the forecasted gross for JCrew in buns I of 2010 victimization exponential Smoothing? 377. 388 in Q1 of 2010 grammatical construction at the Logged role imitate 3. What portion of the sportsman in tax is rationaliseed by cadence? 84% of the pas seul is explained by cartridge clip 4. By how untold does tax change per guide on comely? taxation changes by 4. % per shadower on medium 5. are at that place any(prenominal) outliers ( shadowy or definite)? in that respect is one outlier at time point 4, but it is still wary 6. Is Auto correlativity a worry? No because the Durbin-Watson is 2. 77 consequently slump demote to forswear H0 H0 No symmetricalness coefficient of correlation (p=0) H1 supreme correspondence correlation (p1) 7. Does the data come along to curb the dapple thoroughly? Explain. Yes it fits the plot sanitary in general. in that location is one suspicious value that skews the plot. forecast at the Deseasonalized example 8. What is the lay trendline? y=10. 15x + 139. 39 9. How considerably does the model explain JCrews tax income? 94. 2% of the disagreement in Jcrews revenue is explained by the model 10. Which poop is to the highest degree wanton for JCrew? world-class canton is the intimately successful for Jcrew with a seasonal indicator of . 898 11. have in the following add-in 2010 t Predicted SI view QI 21 352. 54 . 898 316. 58 QII 22 362. 69 . 968 351. 08 QIII 23 372. 84 . 938 349. 72 QIV 24 382. 99 1. 196 458. 06